With a general election looming, and with it the spectre of a hung parliament, and with that the uncertainty over what government policy will actually be, those in the public sector have enough to be concerned about.

Given the fact that all three major political parties have categorically stated (which in the world of politics probably means that they will change their mind) that there will need to be significant cuts in public expenditure, meaning possible job losses and salary freezes, one might understand why morale in the public sector is low.

All of a sudden, a job in the private sector may look appealing. So what changes might the election prompt for public sector employees in the year ahead?   

To answer the question, one necessarily needs to speculate and make assumptions on what government policy will actually comprise.

I will assume that the next government will temper widespread cost cutting with investment in key infrastructure projects. I will also assume that investment in healthcare and education will not be drastically cut; instead the government will demand improvements in efficiency and productivity. We may also see increased initiatives and campaigns to improve the nation’s health, as a means of reducing the cost of the NHS.

Elsewhere, a key assumption is that there will be headcount reductions across the board in local authorities, with the expectation of the government being that improved productivity will cover the gaps that these redundancies will create.

My final key assumption is that the government will transfer elements of the public sector over to the private sector. This move will, on the face of it, have the effect of reducing current expenditure – with the true cost coming in the years ahead.

Will we see a voluntary mass exodus? I think not and I shall explain why.

Firstly, the private sector, while showing signs of recovery in demand for people, remains generally weak. It could be a case of jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Secondly, the private sector has seen widespread cuts in salaries and pay freezes are expected to remain in place at least until 2011. This has made pay scales in the public sector generally more attractive.

Thirdly, the private sector is still under severe strain, with stress and fear in the workplace more common than at any time since records began.

The public sector is therefore an attractive place to be when compared with what the private sector has to offer right now. However, that may change and the public sector may face a 'talent war' when growth in the private sector returns; which it will, as sure as night follows day.

Add to that the fact that elements of the public sector will have been passed to the private sector, with demand for experienced public sector people to help grow those businesses, and it starts to look ominous for the public sector.

When this 'talent war' breaks out, I anticipate that those areas of the public sector that will see the most turbulence will include finance, education, healthcare, transport, property and senior management across all areas. This is because I anticipate that finance, education, healthcare, transport and property are likely to see greater private sector involvement.

Demand for people in the finance and senior management arenas will grow and the public sector provides a rich picking ground for the private sector.

Perhaps the first thing that HR can do is to recognise, acknowledge and address the problems that government spending cuts will create. Ironically, at a time when improvements in efficiency and productivity are being demanded, morale is likely to fall – and productivity will fall with it.

Maintaining and improving morale should therefore be of paramount importance. How to do that could be the subject of a separate article and so I will not touch on that here.

In terms of looking ahead, when the war will intensify as the private sector returns to growth, what the public sector does now will have a significant impact on whether or not people move over to the private sector.

If people feel cared for now, particularly when they are feeling vulnerable, they are more likely to stay. Money is only a part of the reason why people work where they do and is rarely the only reason why they leave.

Communication is vital and it is essential that this is a two way process.

Listening to people and giving them the opportunity to be heard will produce remarkable Results, not only in helping to retain talent but also in term of finding improvements in efficiency and productivity. After all, it is those who do the job that know most about it.